Recently compiled data on new-car registrations from a large portion of the United States seems to offer further support for that view. According to the Dominion Cross-Sell Report, a compilation drawn from state motor vehicle records, registrations of new Tesla vehicles fell significantly from January to February in the 23 states the report covers. The states include California, which accounts for about half of Tesla’s sales, as well as Texas, Florida and Washington, three other big markets for the carmaker.
Last month, 6,252 Teslas were registered with motor vehicle agencies in the 23 states, compared with 23,310 in January and a monthly average of 13,000 to 17,000 in the fourth quarter. The totals tend to reflect a lag because cars are often not registered until the month after purchase.
In December, Tesla was scrambling to sell cars before the end of the year because the federal tax credit available to its customers was set to fall by half on Jan. 1, to $3,850. So a surge in January registrations would not be unexpected. The question is whether an ensuing downturn like the one reflected in the Dominion data would prove lasting.The data for California was even starker, with registrations falling to 2,198 in February from 15,429 in January.
A Tesla spokesman said a single month of vehicle registrations did not necessarily reflect the company’s delivery totals. He said registrations in individual states can fluctuate significantly from month to month because the automaker delivers batches of cars to different areas at different times.But as a place holder for Tesla’s official sales figures, such data is already having an impact. Jeffrey Osborne, an analyst at Cowen & Company, issued a research note on Friday saying the firm was lowering its Tesla price target to $180, from $200, “to reflect both state-government and third-party data that suggests deliveries during the quarter will be weaker than our prior expectations even with the typical end-of-quarter frantic push.”
Tesla shares fell 3.5 percent on Friday, to $264.53.
Analysts believe Tesla’s sales flagged after Jan. 1 because of the reduced tax credit, and because its efforts to accelerate sales in December pulled in customers who probably would have bought cars in the next few months. A slump that follows a sales flurry driven by discounts and incentives is a well-known phenomenon in the auto industry. It is called payback.
